In Brief: major data releases of the week
Tuesday, 17 February 2026
-UK Jobs: Expectations are for further signs of cooling in annual earnings and deterioration in the labour market. Governor Bailey recently stressed the importance of wage growth. Softer data could seal a rate cut, which is already strongly favoured by money markets, at next month’s BoE meeting.
Wednesday, 18 February 2026
-RBNZ Meeting: The bank will leave the OCR on hold at 2.25%. Fresh interest rate projections are likely to be pulled forward, signalling the chance of OCR hikes beginning December of this year versus the prior early 2027. The stronger economy and elevated inflation are likely to be acknowledged. But ongoing excess capacity and tighter financial conditions should offset this and mean steady rates for some time.
-UK CPI: Analysts forecast the headline rate to ease to 3% from 3.4%, core to 3% from 3.2% and the all-important services to 4.3% from 4.5%. The BoE sees the inflation outlook lower in the next six months, primarily due to softer energy prices. The big decline is predicted in April.
-FOMC Minutes: Attention will be on the statement tweaks, which were more positive around the economy and labour market. Any hints on the neutral rate for policy will also be in focus. This meeting came before the recent NFP and CPI data releases.
Thursday, 19 February 2026
-Australia Jobs: Expectations are for a headline print of 20k, after the prior 65k. Unemployment is forecast to remain at 4.2%. It was a volatile but solid finish for the employment change data. This highlights the strength in the economy, though seasonal volatility can impact the figures.
Friday, 20 February 2026
-Global PMIs: Services are gathering increased momentum as price pressures continue to ease, while manufacturing remains a drag on economic activity. New orders and employment sub-indexes typically act as good leading indicators.
-US Core PCE, GDP: The Fed’s favoured inflation gauge is forecast to tick up one-tenth to 0.3% m/m and 2.9% y/y, so still elevated and the above the Fed’s 2% target. Q4 GDP is expected to print at 3%, down from the hot 4.4% but still solid.
