In Brief: major data releases of the week
Monday, 2 February 2026
-US ISM Manufacturing: January manufacturing activity is expected to tick up to 48.3 from 47.9, staying in sub-50 contractionary territory. New orders could signal soft underlying demand while input costs remain elevated due to tariffs and higher raw material prices.
Tuesday, 3 February 2026
-RBA Meeting: There’s a 65% chance of a 25bps rate hike, which would take the cash rate to 3.85%. This comes on the back of persistently high inflation and a resilient labour market, that has strengthened the case for cautious policy tightening. Markets currently price in 50bps of hikes by August.
Wednesday, 4 February 2026
-Eurozone CPI: Consensus sees the headline easing one-tenth to 2.0% and core unchanged at 2.4%. Lower services and fuel prices could cause some disinflation. The ECB is expected to keep an eye on hotter-than-expected wage growth going forward.
-US ISM Services: January non-manufacturing ISM is forecast to move lower to 53.5 from 54.4. The index is in its tenth straight month of expansion above 50. But other surveys point to muted new business growth as tariffs cause increased costs for services in January.
Thursday, 5 February 2026
-Bank of England Meeting: No changes are expected with the Bank rate kept unchanged at 3.75%. Recent data has been mildly hawkish with stronger-than-expected GDP and PMIs. Wage growth is falling while inflation remains sticky. There’s currently a 20% chance of a March rate cut. Cable failed at the July top at 1.3784 with the bearish weekly candlestick price action pointing to more downside.
-ECB Meeting: Policy is in a ‘good place’ which means the ECB is fully expected to leave the deposit rate steady at 2%. Inflation is stable around 2% with growth better than forecast in Germany, Spain and Italy. Questions around the stronger euro will likely be swatted away with a neutral Lagarde answer. The bearish weekly EUR/USD pin bar candle warns of a major top in place, with a resistance zone around 1.19/20.
Friday, 6 February 2026
-US Non-Farm Payrolls: Consensus expects 70k jobs to be added, below the prior 50k. The 3-month average is 22k. The unemployment rate is predicted to remain unchanged at 4.4%. Wage growth is seen steady at 0.3%. The Fed recently painted a more positive view of the labour market, though Chair Powell has previously stated that the BLS is overstating job growth by around 60,000 per month. The data is expected to confirm the “low-hire, low-fire” jobs picture.
-Canada Jobs: The headline figure is forecast to print modestly positive. The jobless rate is seen steady at 6.8%. The BoC appears comfortable with its current stance with little change forecasts through this year. USD/CAD bounced off the long-term low from June at 1.3540.
