The ECB is set to hold rates at 2% on Thursday at its September meeting on Thursday.
7 key points to note:
- Economy resilient since July, with rising PMIs, inflation close to 2% and an EU-US trade deal
- Division still remains between doves and hawks on the Governing Council
- Policy remains in a ‘good place’, Lagarde is likely to sound confident on the economic outlook
- New staff projections to show higher growth and inflation in 2025
- Minor changes to forecasts in 2026 and 2027, though there could be upside risks in time with the German fiscal package
- Limited market reaction and during the press conference expected – though French political questions could be raised
- EUR/USD – major resistance at long-term high at 1.1830 / support around 50-day simple moving average at 1.1662
All the key numbers on a graphic ahead of the meeting:
