We come into a new week after wild price action seen in recent sessions but interestingly, not because of a barrage of fresh headlines. Instead, asset classes have been driven by technical deleveraging, with the most speculative corners of the market feeling the pressure. Sharp selloffs were evident across high-beta assets which means crypto took a hit (-25% at one point on the week), parts of tech, like services, tanked, and silver saw aggressive downside during the week with Chinese positioning a big influence. This wasn’t panic driven by news but position unwinding of previously crowded trades, as we highlighted in last week’s piece.
What stopped things from turning truly disorderly was a Friday ‘buy the dip’ session as risk appetite returned, and major indices staged a strong rebound, wiping out much of the week’s losses. History was also made as the Dow Jones pushed through 50,000 for the first time. That’s really a reminder that rotation is ongoing as investors get away from Big Tech and the hyperscalers and look at more defensive sectors.
Looking ahead, this week is stacked with top tier data and more earnings, while markets will still digest the technical aftershocks from last week. The key focus will be the delayed monthly NFP jobs report alongside CPI, which could shape expectations around interest rates. Add to that retail sales and plenty of Fed speakers, including Governors Miran and Waller. On the political front, US lawmakers face a deadline to agree on Homeland Security funding, which could briefly spill into bond market volatility if talks falter.
Elsewhere, we’ll be watching political developments in Japan and the UK, especially given how sensitive bond markets have been to fiscal and political stress in recent years. PM Takaichi’s gamble to call a snap election looks likely to pay off with a big victory and expansive spending pledges. That points to big gains in domestic stocks and yen weakness, with recent highs around 159 in USD/JPY eyed. PM Starmer is in the opposite position and could face leadership challenges which would worry Gilt markets. Finally, we get more earnings and go beyond tech, with results from big consumer names like Airbnb, Coca-Cola, Hilton, and McDonald’s, that will offer valuable insight into the health of US and global spending.