In Brief: major data releases of the week

Tuesday, 10 February 2026

-US Retail Sales: Consensus expects the headline to rise 0.4% versus the prior 0.6%. Sales should maintain a firm pace of growth with lower and higher income groups continuing to diverge. The latter are benefiting from wealth effects, but the former are being impacted by higher prices.

Wednesday, 11 February 2026

-US Non-Farm Payrolls: Consensus expects 70k jobs to be added in January, above the prior 50k. The 3-month average is 22k. The unemployment rate is predicted to remain at 4.4%. Wage growth is seen steady at 0.3%. Other recent labour market gauges have slowed. Annual benchmark revisions will also be published.

Thursday, 12 February 2026

-UK GDP: Q4 GDP is expected at 0.1% q/q and 1.3% y/y, while December growth is forecast to rise 0.3% from 0.1%. The restart of car production at Jaguar Land Rover boosted Q4 but now means a softer December print. Solid growth momentum should carry over into 2026.

Friday, 13 February 2026

-US CPI: The delayed inflation data is forecast to show both the headline and core prints rising 0.3% m/m and 2.5% y/y. January is typically a solid seasonal up-month while shelter prices could be elevated along with core services. Evidence of tariffs remains limited so far.