Believe it or not, Donald Trump’s second US Presidency hits its first 100 days on Wednesday. If, like us, you feel you’ve aged somewhat in that short space of time, then at least we are all in this together! That means there’s roughly 1,363 more to go. Only one other president has endured a worse start in the S&P 500. No other US commander-in-chief has suffered bigger dollar losses. But Trump’s second stint in the Oval office has been among the best for gold – though that’s not typically a positive thing given its safe haven status. Is this all part of the grand plan to re-order the global system? There’s little doubt this more mercantilist shift has been chaotic and haphazard but has also given us untold trading opportunities.
It’s a busy week on the calendar front with a lot of major US data to look forward to, including the monthly US jobs report. This could tell us if we are closer to a US slowdown and potential recession. Stock markets rallied last week with a kind of “no news, is good news” vibe. Severely beaten-up sectors like tech, consumer discretionary and communication services led the gains on the S&P 500 as the benchmark index jumped 4.6%. Prices have now risen above the halfway point of this year’s high to low move and also broken a couple of short-term down trendlines. Interestingly, we see stories that big US retailers like Walmart and Target have been notifying Chinese suppliers to resume shipping goods. Does this mean the White House will substantially ease tariffs soon? Is this a ‘sell the fact’ event?
The week is probably also the peak of the US earnings season with four of the “Magnificent 7” companies reporting – Microsoft, Meta and Amazon on Wednesday, and Apple on Thursday, all after the US closing bell. We also get many other heavy hitters like Visa and Eli Lilly to alter the risk mood. Quieter markets could leave Trump keen to announce more policies and deals., or even push the boundaries some more. That provides more volatility, especially if we get more denials by China.