The POTUS has form for upending the start of the week with unexpected announcements and policy action – see Venezuela, Fed Chair Powell subpoenas and Greenland. We have had more tariff threats though, this time to Canada of 100% if it seals a deal with China. Probably the main takeaway from the past few weeks is that the market is seemingly getting more used to TACO – ‘Trump Always Chickens Out’ – with even profound NATO war talk ‘only’ inducing a 2% sell off which eventually saw the benchmark S&P 500 finish in the green on the week and a whisker away from all-time highs. It’s also probably another reason for the extraordinary bid in gold and silver, with investors desperate for hard, scarce assets.
There are seven central bank meetings this week, with the Fed and Bank of Canada being the major ones and coming after the BoJ gathering last Friday. Nothing is much expected of the two North American banks truth be told, with statement tweaks, dissenters and Powell’s tone keeping only the most-keen central bank watchers in thrall. The US economy is enjoying a solid growth backdrop, though this is mainly due to high-income consumers and AI investment. So long as stocks and especially tech stay supported, this narrative can continue. Meanwhile, the dollar tanked last week as the ‘Sell America’ theme ebbed in immediate headlining grabbing impact but probably increased in importance over the long-term.
Which brings up perfectly into megacap tech earnings which we get from Microsoft, Meta, Tesla on Wednesday and Apple on Thursday after the US close. That’s four of the so-called “Magnificent” Seven, with a combined market cap of over $10 trillion, which make up roughly 16% of the S&P 500. Microsoft and Apple are expected to post strong double‑digit earnings and revenue growth, with AI and iPhone/Services seen as key engines that can keep the wider bull market intact if guidance stays upbeat. Meta is forecast to deliver hefty ad‑driven revenue growth but with close scrutiny on AI and Reality Labs spending. Elon Musk’s Tesla is predicted to show weaker EPS and revenue on price cuts and margin pressure, making it the main potential drag on risk sentiment if it disappoints.