S&P 500 bounces – 7,000 soon?
The benchmark US stock market is barely in the green in 2026. That compares with other indices which have outperformed over recent months and the last year. The Mag 7 have been renamed the ‘Lag 7’ in some quarters, as the market leaders have broadened out while the Tech sector has dragged on the broader market. That tallies with only Alphabet and Nvidia doing better than the S&P 500 in 2025. Most recently, after making fresh record highs last week, the index has fallen to the 50-day SMA at 6,832. The first minor Fib level sits below here at 6,698 while the all-time top is 6,986. After all the volatility, TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out) and the tariff climbdown this week, could we break the huge psychological 7,000 barrier soon?
Cable above 200-day moving average
The pound tends to underperform in big risk-off periods and so far this week, that has proven correct with it barely above JPY and USD. Domestic drivers have been thin too over recent weeks, with broader sentiment the main catalyst. We did get job and inflation figures released on Tuesday and Wednesday, but they didn’t move the dial on BoE rate cut expectations. The next 25bp rate cut is fully priced in by markets by June. Chart wise, GBP/USD formed a decent bull channel and series of higher highs and higher lows after the bottom seen in November at 1.3010. Since then, prices topped out at 1.3567 earlier this month before drifting lower towards the 50-day SMA, now at 1.3341. The midpoint of the July to November 2025 move is at 1.3397. Prices have moved above the 200-day SMA at 1.3404 with the major Fib level (61.8%) at 1.3488.
USD/CHF, the safe haven major
Safe havens currencies have inevitably been choppy this week on Greenland headline havoc. The swissie was initially in demand with the ice crisis ramping up geopolitical and trade war worries. That meant bonds were bought and yields went higher, while currencies like the Swiss franc performed well on Monday and Tuesday. That moved the major with USD/CHF moving down through its 50-day simple moving average at 0.7979, as CHF was bought up and the dollar sold off. The bear move saw the major get close to long-term major support zone around 0.7871, which capped the downside in July, September, October and December last year. There is very little big support below here until levels seen in 2011. Lo and behold the support zone did its job, and prices have bounced. But the major would likely need to get back above the 200-day simple moving average at 0.8050 to slow the long-term downtrend.