Stock markets enjoyed the better than expected US Q1 GDP Friday ending the week on a strong note. The US economy grew 3.2% in Q1, the best start to a year since 2015. The print topped estimates of 2.3% and Q4’s 2.2%.
Macro data risk wil be very high as we have a packed calendar full of central bank meetings and important economic figures, so adjust position sizes accordingly. Trade headlines may also dominate in the first half of the week as US-China trade talks recommence tomorrow.
Key questions for the main risk events will be whether the FOMC can sound optmistic without sounding 'less' patient. Will the risk of at least one vote for a hike at the BOE Meeting Thursday send too hawkish a signal? And rounding off the week, will record low jobless claims see another impressive US jobs print?
The strong weekly close on DXY for the dollar is noteworthy with EUR/USD remaining below previous lows around 1.1180. Interestingly, bond markets remain extremely sensitive to disappointing data while showing resilience to exceptional positive surprises. Watch out for potential heightened volatility in Asia due to the ten day holiday in Japan.
Here's what to look out for on the data calendar across global markets this week:
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