Having recently been shaken up by one inflation report across the pond, markets will be braced for another surprise when the latest UK inflation data is released on Wednesday. But recent encouraging news on price pressures means the odds of a Bank of England June rate cut are currently just under a coin toss. This is in contrast to the US where the first move has been postponed until after the summer.
The first important piece of data, which the Bank of England will use to determine policy in the months ahead, was today’s job numbers. Unemployment figures ticked higher though there have been sampling issues with these numbers, while wage growth saw a modest fall but was hotter than expected. The ex-bonuses number didn’t ease below 6% as forecast, sticking at the MPC’s prediction of 6%.
Falling prices are forecast in tomorrow’s CPI report, with the headline predicted to slide to 3.1% from 3.4% in February. That data would have got a boost from the early Easter holiday, but last year’s big price rises continue to drop out of the annual comparison, while food and core goods prices should also drag the headline lower. Looking ahead, the headline may be affected by rising petrol prices though policymakers do focus more on core readings and services inflation data.
The March services print could come in below the MPC’s recent estimate of 6%, while the annual core rate, which strips out volatile food and energy costs, is seen ticking two-tenths lower to 4.3%. The Easter effects will reverse in April bringing down services inflation much closer to 5%, with the MPC forecast at 5.3%.
Any material downside to the figures will spark further selling in the pound versus the dollar. Central bank divergence is fast becoming a key theme for markets and a patient Fed stands in sharp contrast to a potentially rate-cutting BoE. Cable recently broke down through the floor of the sideways range it had been trading in since December.
But if price pressures remain sticky, sterling could find some support. Indeed, it might fare better against the euro, as the ECB is happy to be out on its own in policy easing with a June rate cut currently nailed on by money markets. Persistent inflation in the UK could mean the Old Lady waits a little longer to be sure price pressures are nearer to target.