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The Week Ahead, 13 to 17 March 2017




With no surprising economic data release to change its course, the Euro continued the range bound trajectory which began in late February; hitting a week low of 1.0530 on Thursday. Thursday's rate decision brought about a change in course as moderately dovish statements from Draghi gave the bloc currency a boost to finish the week around its highs of 1.0700. This week, important releases investors are looking out for include a Draghi speech on Monday, Industrial Production data on Tuesday, as well as CPI on Thursday.

US dollar had an encouraging week last week mainly spurred on by Trade and Factory orders figures that were in line with expectations coupled with better than expected employment data releases on both Wednesday and Friday. This resulted in the US dollar finishing the week just off its highs. This week could be a game changer for the top reserve currency as investors look out for the indications for inflation on Wednesday, along with the Fed's latest rate decision. The currency finishes off the week with Initial Jobless Claims and Industrial Production releases on Thursday and Friday respectively.

Sterling has been in the most recent leg of its downtrend since the end of February and this was no different last week. Barring the Budget release on Wednesday, there was no really important data release until Friday's worse than expected Production figures - which did nothing to help the currency's downward path. Going into the weekend, rumours begun to circulate of the possible triggering of Article 50 bill by the British PM, which will formally launch the negotiation talks for the UK to exit the EU. Talks about this should dominate the headlines along with sterling's move until this Thursday's BoE MPC interest rate release.

Aussie experienced a sharp down-move last week, the main catalyst being a hawkish rate release. This move lower was further helped by there not being any further important data due out for the rest of the week last week - the currency closed the week at 3 week lows. Going into this week, Investors are looking out for the Consumer inflation expectation as well as Employment and Unemployment rate releases on Thursday to provide justification as to whether the currency is moving in the right direction.