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The Week Ahead, 15 to 19 May 2017



The dollar enjoyed a bouyant week last week hitting a high of around 114.360 - on the back of positive sentiment due to the result of the French elections, as well as better that expected PPI and Initial Jobless Claims figures. The bullish sentiment was shortlived as weaker than expected Retail Sales and CPI figures on Friday saw the dollar retrace almost 50% of the week's gains to close lower. In the coming week, investors will be focussing on Housing Starts and Industrial Production figures due out on Tuesday and the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey due out on Wednesday.

With the risk of a possible far right victory in the French election subsided, and a Macron victory already priced in, the Euro proceeded to fall for most of the week last week, aided by negative Investor Confidence and Industrial Production figures. This downward Euro path reversed on a dollar induced move to finish the week moderately higher. In the coming week, investors will be looking out for the GDP release on Tuesday, CPI release on Wednesday, as well as the Consumer Confidence release on Friday.

Sterling stalled last week and proceeded to fall after charging from a 3-month low in March to hit a high of 1.29880. This down move was aided further by the BoE deciding to keep all policy measures unchanged for the foreseeable future. In the coming week, investors will be focussing on CPI figures due out on Tuesday, Unemployment figures out on Wednesday and Retail Sales figures due out on Thursday.

Aussie had a mixed week last week after the current leg of its downward move which begun on the 1st of May. The move was the result of negative sentiment brought on by worse than expected figures for Australian Retail Sales and Chinese Balance of Payments. In the coming week, investors will be looking forward to the RBA Minutes due for release on Tuesday, Consumer Confidence on Wednesday and Unemployment figures on Thursday.