Weekly Commentary 16 April 2018
The Euro was last down -0.55% against a basket of 99 peers in part due to negative Eurozone figures such as the ZEW economic sentiment which came at a whopping -8.2 on pessimistic side of the fence. The week ahead holds several figures of middling importance with the star of the week on Thursday with the ECB’s rate decision and following press conference.
The British pound flirted with two-week lows against the dollar on Friday following comments from the Bank of England chief, soft UK retail sales data and negative CPI readings. In the week ahead, we will be looking to Friday, at 09:30 AM London time preliminary GDP figures are being released, 0.3% is being forecast which is down from 0.4% of the previous reading. Later that same day Governor Carney will offer some more insight into BOE’s moves at 15:00 London time.
The USD had a disjointed performance this previous week due to conflicting between positive economic figures and negative geo-political statements made by world leaders. The USD had a better than expected March Retail Sales Report, better manufacturing and a strong housing figure. However, after a negative start at the beginning of the week the greenback took off on positive data and commentary from Fed Officials. This week we look ahead to Consumer Confidence data on Tuesday, Core Durable Goods on Thursday and Friday’s Advance GDP, this GDP will be a quarter on quarter measurement.
The AUD was torn between higher commodity prices and a weak labour report however it still came out ahead most of its peers with gains of 2.2% against the CHF and 2.16% against the SEK. This week ahead the only major economic figures we can look forward to are Tuesday’s CPI figures which are forecast to come out at 0.5%.
Spreads may widen surrounding important news announcements, during political uncertainty, unexpected events leading to volatile market conditions or at the open/close of the business day
and on weekends when liquidity is lower.